The European Commission revises upwards its expectations for the growth of the economy in Italy this year: it forecasts a GDP growth of 0.9% (up from 0.7% in previous forecasts). The expectations for 2025 have also been adjusted to a GDP growth of 1.1% (down from 1.2%). These figures emerged in the spring forecasts of the European executive. Inflation is expected to reach 1.6% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025.
Italy – with a growth of 0.9% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025 – will grow more than Germany and France this year. This can be seen in the economic spring forecasts from the European Commission. “After the recession in 2023, economic activity in Germany is expected to stagnate in 2024,” highlights the European Commission. Germany’s growth is forecasted at 0.1% in 2024 and 1% in 2025, remaining at the bottom among the major Eurozone countries. France, on the other hand, will grow by 0.7% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025. The Southern countries are driving the Eurozone’s growth. Economic activity in Spain is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, driven by domestic demand and supported by a strong labor market. Greece is forecasted to grow by 2.2% this year and 2.3% next year. Portugal will see a GDP increase of 1.7% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025.
“The Commission’s forecasts align with ours. Unfortunately, the debt will be burdened in the coming years due to the negative effects of the Superbonus. On the other hand, European data on the debt-to-GDP ratio do not include the effects of recent measures that will have positive impacts on the accounts.” This was stated by the Minister of Economy and Finance, Giancarlo Giorgetti.
“I want to assure everyone that we are not facing a ‘Greece risk’. We are facing a measure that certainly had positive effects, but it spiraled out of control, becoming a dangerous element, and the government is right to address it,” said the European Commissioner for Economy, Paolo Gentiloni.
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The European Commission expects Italy’s public debt-to-GDP ratio to increase from 137.3% in 2023 to 138.6% in 2024 and 141.7% in 2025. These figures are part of the spring forecasts of the EU executive. The deficit-to-GDP ratio of Italy, after 7.4% in 2023, is projected to decrease to 4.4% in 2024 and then rise to 4.7% in 2025.
Gentiloni: “Global Political Uncertainty is High”
“The uncertainty and downside risks to economic prospects resulting from the external environment of the EU have increased. Global political uncertainty is also high, given the unprecedented number of people worldwide going to elections this year,” said EU Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni while presenting the economic spring forecasts of the EU executive.
The requests from the EU Commission for budget adjustments related to the excessive deficit procedure under the new Stability Pact are expected to come in November, Gentiloni mentioned. “The discussion between the Commission and the different governments on presenting the decisions regarding the European procedures for excessive deficit in the June spring package and recommendations to different countries in the November package is being finalized,” he added.
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