By Tyler Arnold
Washington, D.C. Newsroom, May 7, 2025 / 07:00 am
Online gambling is on the rise in the United States, with a focus on sports and casino games. However, bookmakers have now expanded their offerings to include betting markets for various other events, including the current papal conclave.
The College of Cardinals is currently engaged in the important task of selecting the next Pope in a solemn closed-door process. This conclave has captured the attention of people worldwide, both Catholics and non-Catholics, and has spurred tens of millions of dollars in bets on its outcome.
Polymarket, a well-known cryptocurrency-based betting platform, is managing over $18 million in bets on the papal conclave. Another platform, Kalshi, is overseeing nearly $6.7 million in bets.
According to the odds on Polymarket, Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin leads as the favorite with 27% odds, followed by Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle at 22%. Other top contenders include Matteo Zuppi at 11%, Pierbattista Pizzaballa at 10%, and Peter Erdo at 7%.
Individuals can place bets on a potential winner, predicting who will be selected as the next Pope, or they can bet against a certain cardinal being chosen. The payouts for each bet vary based on the odds set by the platform.
On Polymarket, significant bets have been placed on Tagle and Dutch Cardinal Willem “Wim” Eijk, despite the latter having only 1% odds according to the oddsmakers.
Who Will Be the Next Pope? Betting on the Papal Conclave
More than $1 million has been placed on three top picks for the next pope: Parolin, Cardinal Peter Turkson, and Cardinal Robert Sarah. The anticipation and speculation surrounding the papal conclave are at an all-time high as bookmakers and the public try to predict who will emerge as the new leader of the Catholic Church.
The uncertainty surrounding papal conclaves is due to the secretive nature of the process and the lack of public campaigning. The odds provided by bookmakers may not accurately reflect the true chances of a specific cardinal being chosen as the next pope. Tom Nash, a contributing apologist for Catholic Answers, pointed out that while some cardinals may be considered front-runners based on media attention and their role under Pope Francis, they may not necessarily have the support of their fellow electors.
Cardinal Angelo Scola was once considered a strong contender for the papacy in 2003, but he ultimately did not receive the required two-thirds majority vote. The cardinals surprised many by selecting Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, who became Pope Francis. This unpredictability is what makes papal conclaves so intriguing and difficult to predict.
While the cardinals have already met in pre-conclave congregations, these meetings are closed to the public, adding to the mystery and speculation surrounding the selection process. Nash emphasized the importance of privacy in the conclave to prevent external influences from affecting the cardinals’ decision-making process.
As the world waits with bated breath for the white smoke to signal the election of the next pope, the excitement and uncertainty continue to grow. Who will emerge as the new leader of the Catholic Church? Only time will tell.
